"The financial crisis is a real-life version of The Emperor's New Clothes," Paul Zane Pilzer (Paul Zane Pilzer) said, "Everyone's going on conformityConsumptionBuy far more than the cost of the product, until a little boy to tell the truth. "

Pilzer at 25-year-old will become aCitigroupGroup's history, the youngest vice president, he served as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush during the two presidential economic adviser. In addition, Pilzer also "The New York Times" best-selling books as a writer.

October 26, Pilzer in his home in Park City, Utah (Park City)'s home, accepted the newspaper interview.

Pilzer believes that out of the crisis, the real way to solve the over-consumption is to re-start a real sense of the wordBusiness"Innovation." This kind of "innovation" in 1999, has stalled after a decade.

His new book, "Fortune fifth wave" that the health industry will be following the personal computer and networking industry, a prosperous industry, the next post. For the health industry, closely related to the moment the United StatesMedical Reform, Pilzer directed "Obama did poorly."

While he said that so far have yet to see really belong to Obama's economic policies, but Pilzer convinced that the United States can regain economic vitality in post-crisis and maintain a leading economic position. While China is able to catch up with a small number of countries.

Financial crisis

Real-life version of "The Emperor New Clothes,"

"21st Century": how do you understand the outbreak of the financial crisis?

Pilzer: The financial crisis is only a short-term amendment, in fact, there is a very positive effect.

In the last century, the United States could have won a brilliant economic success because of constant innovation, but innovation in practice since 1999, has stalled. To the United States Year 1979-1999AutomotiveIndustry as an example, this period, car performance and quality of constantly updated, maintenance or modification of an old car that cost or even higher than the purchase of a new car. Thus, the U.S. automobile consumption was growing, people are constantly upgrading the performance of the new car to buy. However, in 1999, the Detroit car manufacturers do not have the actual performance of the innovation.

Housing is the same. Prior to 1999, U.S. residents continue to make breakthroughs in quality of housing, including better indoor air-conditioning, building isolation materials. However, since 1999, in addition to the house continued to become larger than rising prices, housing quality, and there is no real improvements. Similarly, a housing, in 1999 the price was 25 million dollars, in 2008 it reached 45 million. The reason why people in the nine years of continuous purchase of houses, simply because more convenientCreditAs well as concerns about rising house prices will continue to be.

The financial crisis and the "Emperor's New Clothes" story the same. Consumers had been told, what you buy prices are rising because it was so many good things. Nonetheless, in the "quality" of the innovation since 1999, has stalled.

Out of crisis by valuable innovations

"21st Century": So you think the real effective way out of crisis is to re-start innovation?

Pilzer: Yes. You let the people's consumption, we must come up with truly worthy of them to buy products, especially after the crisis, people have become cautious on consumption will not be as easily as before, not worth that price to buy the real thing.

In fact, if oil prices last summer in Detroit in 5 gallonU.S. DollarWhen the introduction able to run 100 miles per gallon car, the U.S. auto industry will not decline to this. People are driven by high oil prices is very eager and effective energy-efficient cars, but Detroit did not get such a consumer demand.

"21st Century": Your "innovation" theory reminds me of the financial crisis broke out just because of excessive financial innovation.

Pilzer: Wall Street's financial innovation and the innovation is not the same as I said, its innovation and does not give society the real economic value added, does not create real wealth. A group of math geniuses constantly design model, the various combinations of financial products packaged into the so-called high-level people can not understand derivatives, that in itself is a crazy behavior.

Do not see the real

"Obama economic policy"

"21st Century": Your latest book is about the health industry, and this reminds me of the medical reform in the United States right now, do you think the current health reform the biggest problem?

Pilzer: It is now the focus, first, the cost of the cost of medical reform, and second, whether the change in U.S. medical reform "free market" values. And the operators at the level of difficulty, one "universal coverage"; second is how to implement "real health care security", for example, to have a history of peopleInsuranceCompany does not accept insurance, the replacement of the original insurance canceled after work to re-insurance, etc.; And then there are how to control medical costs.

In addition, we have 50 states, 8 the current health insurance system is very complex. The federal government wants eventually to arrive at a unified program is passed, no easy task. Obama may not be aware of effective methods.

In fact, the technical aspects of the operation of opening, from a higher perspective, the United States has in the past have not been able to establish an effective health-care system, or are still struggling on this issue, there is the political elite to enact the Bill on this issue can not share the feelings of ordinary people.

Federal and state government officials who enjoy the taxpayers without limit medical claims, they do not know that ordinary people in the health insurance issue are how to suffering. Therefore, they do not have a strong driving force, it is difficult from a public point of view, to promote and address the national health insurance, but in the political and commercial interests under the left and right, in the Medicare bill deadlocked.

"21st Century": As the two presidential economic adviser, how do you think the Obama administration's economic policies?

Pilzer: So far, I have not seen a real part of Obama's economic policies, he is now the economy is still doing, "fire fighting", on the financial sector such as "fire fighting." Make fundamental adjustments in the U.S. economy, such a policy has not really issued.

As for the ongoing medical reform, frankly speaking, I think he did poorly. Medical reform is now the most critical problem is how to reduce costs, medical costs account for U.S. GDP, 1 / 6, if you can not reduce this cost, from the political means that you will lose 1 / 6 of the political support. But Obama is not the focus of the current medical reform here.

However, in its China policy, Obama made a wise decision. Ambassador Hongbo Pei is definitely the best candidate, and want to re-election of Barack Obama through this appointment, they avoid a strong opponent.

The United States can regain its economic vitality of

"21st Century": After going through this crisis, do you think the U.S. economy still be able to regain its vitality, keep up the momentum of development?

Pilzer: The United States can do it. Moreover, it is precisely the crisis for the United States provides an opportunity to re-charge.

In fact, with the continuous development of science and technology, social and professional quality for the employment of those requirements are also rising. For example, in the past a company's need to recruit 100 graduates each year to conduct the work of grass-roots operations, but when the equipment upgrade, it only needs 80 operations and five high-level co-ordinating the work of professionals, which means that even without the outbreak of the economic crisis, there are 15 graduates face unemployment.

But in the past few decades, for the escalation of vocational training for workers can not keep up the pace of technological development. Take from this crisis, the unemployment problem has been intensified, the Government and the community began to be forced to consider how to accommodate these personnel, the training is the best way. And will always be a vibrant economy to keep the core of the personnel structure and economic development structure together, we will improve the efficiency of the entire socio-economic development. In fact, the training itself is a great industry, the United States is still not fully tap its potential.

"21st Century": So you think China can catch up in the near future, the United States? May face the problem be?

Pilzer: China's development over the past few decades has proved its great potential and vitality of China can catch up with the United States, even in the final to create a better model for the United States to study. However, China to solve the problem, the first is how to make the products have been around the world for the better, not cheaper; second is to build suitable for China's social security, health care system.